Donald Trump has made Justin Trudeau’s political predicament worse. Will he be able to continue governing Canada?
After the senior minister resigns over a potential “tariff war,” Canada’s beleaguered prime leader is being called upon once again to step down.
Justin Trudeau has spent weeks trying to convince Canadians that everything is in control in his government.
The headlines have been dominated by US President-elect Donald Trump’s warning late last month to impose 25% tariffs on his northern neighbour, and Canadian politicians and business leaders have been attacking the prime minister over his preparations for a response.
When Canada’s finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, announced this week that she was leaving her position because she and Trudeau were “at odds about the best path forward,” the long-simmering crisis took an unexpected and worsening turn.
The United States’ incoming administration is threatening 25% tariffs as part of its hardline economic nationalism strategy. In her letter of resignation on Monday, Freeland stated, “We must take that threat very seriously.
In order to have the reserves we might require for an impending trade war, that entails keeping our fiscal powder dry today. This entails avoiding expensive political ploys that we cannot afford and that cast doubt on our ability to understand the seriousness of the situation.
Canada has been rocked by Freeland’s abrupt resignation and the letter she sent denouncing her long-time political ally.
They have also prompted fresh demands that Trudeau resign as leader of his Liberal Party ahead of next year’s elections, as he has already been undermined by months of internal strife and declining public support.
Pierre Poilievre, the head of the Conservative Party, warned reporters in Ottawa, the capital of Canada, on Monday that “everything is spiralling out of control.”
Poilievre stated that Trump is “a man who can spot weakness from a mile away” and that “we cannot accept this kind of chaos, division [and] weakness while we’re staring down the barrel of a 25-percent tariff by our biggest trading partner and closest ally.”
“A willingness to adapt”
Canada was in a tense political situation even before Freeland’s shocking revelation or Trump’s threat of tariffs.
The nation has been preparing for a federal election that is anticipated to bring an end to ten years of Liberal Party governments led by Trudeau and install right-wing populist Poilievre as the next prime minister of Canada.
In addition, it is dealing with a housing crisis, growing expenses, and more polarising political discourse.
When Jagmeet Singh, the leader of the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP), declared in September that his party was pulling out of a 2022 deal to support Trudeau’s minority government, the Liberals also lost the support of the NDP.
The government is more at risk if a no-confidence vote is called in the House of Commons, even though the NDP has so far remained in the Liberals’ ranks. That vote’s outcome might compel Trudeau to call an early election.
Singh criticised the Liberals on Monday, saying, “They’re fighting themselves instead of fighting for Canadians.” That’s why I’m urging Justin Trudeau to step down today. He must leave.
According to the majority of recent polls, Trudeau will have a challenging, if not impossible, time regaining the public’s favour before the next election, which must take place before the end of October 2025.
According to a November Leger poll, 42% of Canadians stated they would support the Conservatives in the upcoming election, while 26% supported the Liberals and 15% supported the NDP.
According to the same survey, nearly seven out of ten Canadians expressed dissatisfaction with Trudeau’s administration.
Laura Stephenson, a political science professor at Western University in Ontario, told Al Jazeera in an interview before to Freeland’s departure and the recent demands for Trudeau’s resignation that “there’s an overwhelming appetite right now for change.”
“And Canadians have very little faith that the government that has ruled for so long will bring about change.”
Since 2015, when he and his moderate Liberal Party secured a majority government, Trudeau has been the prime minister. Former Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s nearly ten years of Conservative leadership came to an end with that election.
Like many electorates worldwide, Canadians have grown tired of Trudeau’s government as his tenure approaches the 10-year mark. This is known as “incumbent fatigue.”
More than that, though, Trudeau has been the focus of mounting ire in recent years over a number of important problems, including the housing crisis, grocery prices, and how his administration handled the COVID-19 outbreak.
Barbara Perry, head of Ontario Tech University’s Centre on Hate, Bias, and Extremism, stated in 2016 that “we’re in a very different place I think than we were when Trump was first elected,” pointing out that right-wing talking points had become more popular across Canada in recent years.
As further proof of a broader change, she cited a recent Abacus Data survey that revealed Canadians had a more positive opinion of Trump than Trudeau, 26 percent to 23 percent.
Perry told Al Jazeera, “I think it does suggest that there is room for right-wing forces to emerge in the Canadian context, and it is really disturbing that [Trump] is that popular.”
In 2016, she added, “we saw little glimmers of right-wing political narratives, but I think we’re seeing more than glimmers now.”
“For those who would prefer to see much more progressive and inclusive policies and discourses, it really does bode well for the far right [and] bode ill for others.”
Canada-US relations
Trump’s tariff threat and concerns about the Trudeau administration’s strategy for handling the next US administration have loomed large against this backdrop.
The president-elect stated in a Truth Social post on November 25 that he would apply a 25 percent tax to Canada and Mexico until both nations halt the movement of migrants and drugs across their borders.
“Canada and Mexico both have the complete authority and right to quickly resolve this long-simmering issue. We so demand that they make use of this power, and until they do, they will have to pay a hefty price! Trump wrote.
In response to the threat, Trudeau, who served as prime minister from 2017 to 2021 during Trump’s first term, emphasised the need of close US-Canada ties and advocated for a unified, nonpartisan “Team Canada” approach to the next US administration.
According to Canadian government statistics, the two nations exchanged around $2.7 billion ($3.6 billion Canadian) worth of goods and services every day in 2023, sharing the longest international border in the world at 8,891 kilometres (5,525 miles).
In late November, the prime minister paid a surprise visit to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida to discuss the future, and the Canadian government pledged to implement more stringent border controls.
“Thank you, President Trump, for dinner last night. After the discussions, Trudeau acknowledged his acquaintance with the US leader by writing on X, “I look forward to the work we can do together, again.”
According to Christine de Clercy, a political science professor at Trent University in Ontario, the Trudeau administration believed that it could safeguard Canadian interests throughout Trump’s first term by negotiating “from a position of allyship, not from a position of enmity.”
In an interview with Al Jazeera prior to this week’s events in Ottawa, de Clercy stated that Trudeau has seemed to be sticking to that strategy despite the altered political environments in both nations.
And he’s not the relatively inexperienced prime minister he was when Mr. Trump was first sworn in in 2017,” de Clercy stated.
“That is valuable because Canadians are rightfully concerned about how the Canada-American relationship will develop over the next four years.”
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