The Steelers didn’t make the playoffs by accident. Sure, they needed help to get in. And sure, they could have been much more convincing if they would have taken care of business against just one of the 2-10 teams they lost to in December.
But the Steelers broke from the pattern that earned them a chance to upset the conference’s top seed when they lost 31–17 to the Bills in the AFC wild-card game.
Making opposing defenders choose between stopping the run or the pass was a major factor in the offense’s success during a three-game winning streak that rejuvenated the team after Mason Rudolph took over as quarterback. The Steelers would then hold them accountable for overpricing their selection.
To put it another way, choose your poison. To halt the run, load the box and sell out? Then, since players like Diontae Johnson and George Pickens will become available, we’ll attack you with intermediate and deep passes. You lighten the box now to remove those who have passed away? We are about to force Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris down your throats.
This mindset was demonstrated not just in the victory against the Seahawks but also against the Bengals and, to a lesser extent, during the Baltimore monsoon, albeit the latter is difficult to evaluate because of the weather.
For better or worse, however, the Steelers entered the game against the Bills with a rigid game plan to establish physical dominance on the ground.
The Steelers come out in 11 personnel (one tight end, one rushing back), which raises the chance of play-action. However, they don’t fully telegraph the run here. The Bills, on the other hand, did not fall for it; instead, they restricted Harris to a meager 1-yard gain by overloading the box to sell out and stop the run.
Especially on plays with a lot of runs, the Bills frequently and early filled the box. In the first half, the Steelers attempted fifteen first-down attempts, all of which ended in disastrous failure. On ten of those plays, they gained 31 yards overall while running the ball. On the other hand, the first five plays on first down saw four runs, all from under center against filled boxes, for a total of six yards gaine
Of the remaining six runs on first down in the first half, the Steelers gained 25 yards. Not terrible, but not exactly asserting any will, either. The most successful run (outside of a nice play call during the two-minute offense) was this 9-yard gain by Harris:
The Steelers are in 11 personnel with Rudolph at center, just like they were on the opening play of the contest. However, take note of how the Bills defense has changed from the game’s first play to this one. On this run, there are just six defenders in the box. Why? The Steelers may have changed things up on first down before that, which may be one explanation.
Not only was this the third play of the drive, but it was also the third first down. Against a Bills defense that was giving all they could to stop the run (just take a look at how many guys were positioned near to the line of scrimmage), Pat Freiermuth’s play-action masterpiece was the first:
The second one was a play-action pass as well, although it was made from a shotgun. And Allen Robinson got 13 yards on the checkdown. The offense capitalized when the Steelers forced the Bills to react and respect the throw. The issue is that it took them much too long to change it.
The Steelers knew going into the game that the Bills defense had lined up in middle-field open coverages, or two high safeties, the third-highest percentage in the NFL this season at 58.6%. They thought they would exploit this, but the Bills were always packing the box, leaving only one high safety. The issue is that until the game’s fourth drive, the first of the game, the Steelers didn’t stray from the game plan and counterpunch.In addition to spending an excessive amount of time to adapt to the Bills’ defensive scheme, the Steelers failed to put the Buffalo defense to the test when they stacked the box, unlike their performance against the Seahawks. Here’s a recap of how the Steelers penalized the Seahawks for adding a defender to the box in order to honor the run:
After the Steelers dominated the Seahawks for 14 plays and 80 yards, culminating in an 18-yard touchdown run by Warren, this was the second play of the drive. The next drive started with Warren scoring on the opening play with a 23-yard gain. The Seahawks tried to stop the run with seven players in the box, despite the Steelers being in the shotgun. Standard nickel defenses only have six defenders in the box, yet the Steelers made them pay for it with a 37-yard completion to Pickens on a deep corner route.Rudolph’s longest connection against the Bills went 19 yards from the line of scrimmage. Of his 39 efforts, just two ventured more than 20 yards from the line of scrimmage. Rudolph averaged 7.8 intended air yards and 5.9 air yards per completion against the Bills. In contrast, the Seahawks had 8.1 average completed air yards and 8.0 average intended air yards, and the Bengals recorded 6.3 average completed air yards and 9.7 average intended air yards
The Bills are excellent at stopping long throws, but they might have had more opportunities for big plays like this one to Johnson for 19 yards if they had combined passes and runs more often.
In other words, even though they sold out to stop the run, the Steelers did not place enough emphasis on the second and third levels of the Bills’ defense. The Steelers realized their mistake, but it was too late. Even with the Bills loosing their best cornerback in Rasul Douglas and their best linebacker in Terrel Bernard early in the third quarter, they are in too big of a hole to get out of after falling behind 21-0 on the road in a hostile atmosphere against one of the finest quarterbacks in the league.
There have to be more factors at play for the Steelers to lose this game. It is fatal to turn the ball over twice and let them score 14 points in the other direction. However, Monday night in Orchard Park, New York, the team’s identity that they had developed in the three games with Rudolph to advance to the playoffs was nonexistent.
I don’t think games are lost in the first half very frequently, but this one was. It’s unfortunate because, even though the Steelers’ odds of winning would have remained minimal, they would have had a higher chance of pulling off an upset if they had kept to their original strategy of punching their ticket to the game.
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